Half of all vehicles sold in 2030 will have electrified powertrains. What will it take to get there?
Of the megatrends shaping the automotive industry, electrification is certainly one that has full government attention. Regulations for emissions have been revised on a global scale, pushing auto makers to drive down emissions.
The cost to attain fleet targets is estimated at around €15 billoni. The move towards electrification isn’t just about the change from a combustion engine to a hybrid or fully electric model, but also about changing and updating vehicle production lines, deploying an electrification infrastructure and increasing production capacity for batteries.
Vehicle Electrification Architectures
As the growth of hybrid and electric vehicles spreads, the market looks increasingly fragmented. This means that a variety of approaches is needed to fulfill the different needs present through the individual sections of the market.
Mild-Hybrid architecture is the first step in the chain: where the cranking battery is up-sized to 48 V and switching to an electric motor for cruising.
In a Full-Hybrid architecture, electricity is generated by the combustion engine, but the car can run on full electrical cycles. Both Full- and Mild-Hybrid use regenerative braking, engine start-stop and engine assist to increase efficiency. Today, approximately 20% of electrified vehicles sold are in the Mild- or Full-Hybrid categoryiii.
Plug-In-Hybrid and Range-Extended EVs switch the predominant power source to the electric drivetrain and keep the combustion engine to extend the ride. Compared to a traditional ICE engine, CO² reductions range from 50 to 75 percent with this approach.
The Fully-Electric vehicle varies according to battery pack size. Overall, battery pack capacity is increasing. Today, typical capacity is around 10-13 kWh, or 50-65 km of driving range. The expectation is for it to expand to around 70-80 kWh to deliver the 350-400 km driving range that consumers wantiv. However, it is not just the battery pack capacity that plays a role, but the entire electric chain through to the inverter in the electric powertrain system.
Although these approaches present different electrification architectures, there are common features that mean moving seamlessly through to Fully Electric powertrains is achievable. Taking a new approach to designing for electrification and combining the needs with inherent functional safety is how we can move the market forward.
Find out more about NXP’s electrification portfolio at www.nxp.com/electrification.
i Evercore report, April, 2019
ii Global EV Outlook, 2019
iii Strategy Analytics, HIS, Evercore, NXP CMI
iv Global EV Outlook, 2019